DR. STEFAN KERTESZ, MD, “THE PLAN” CORRECTING OPIOID NARCOTIC MISINFORMATION FLAWS AND FALSEHOODS OF U.S. PROSECUTORS, CALIFORNIA MEDICAL BOARD, MONTANA BOARD OF MEDICAL EXAMINERS(SERIES-4)

To urge the FDA to update opioid product labeling and public communication to promote science-based care, offer more accurate information on risks, and vastly improve communication on the risks of opioid reduction, thereby mitigating the mistreatment of patients prescribed opioids for long-term pain. A pilot in a cockpit, wearing headphones, gestures emphatically while speaking to two passengers seated behind him, with flight instruments visible in the background.
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Professional headshot of Dr. Stefan G. Kertesz, smiling and wearing glasses, against a neutral background. To urge the FDA to update opioid product labeling and public communication to promote science-based care, offer more accurate information on risks, and vastly improve communication on the risks of opioid reduction, thereby mitigating the mistreatment of patients prescribed opioids for long-term pain.
Stefan Kertesz Profile | University of Alabama at Birmingham

Review of Stefan G. Kertesz’s Submission to FDA Docket REVISING OPIOID LABELING

Dr. Kertesz argues that current communication and understanding of the risk of new onset opioid use disorder (OUD) in patients receiving long-term opioid therapy is based on outdated and poor-quality research, leading to significant overestimation.

This article summarizes a formal submission plan by Dr. Stefan G. Kertesz et al., urging the FDA to modernize opioid labeling and public safety communications. He argues that current warnings significantly overestimate addiction risks while failing to address the severe dangers associated with involuntary dose reductions.

A colorful background featuring a soft watercolor effect, with a prominent quote stating, 'This is not a political problem. It is a human rights issue.' Below it, another quote reads, 'Pain rains on the red, the blue and the purple.' The text emphasizes the lack of political action on pain management. To urge the FDA to update opioid product labeling and public communication to promote science-based care, offer more accurate information on risks, and vastly improve communication on the risks of opioid reduction, thereby mitigating the mistreatment of patients prescribed opioids for long-term pain.

By citing updated research, the author demonstrates that opioid use disorder occurs at much lower rates than previously claimed, yet tapering patients too quickly can lead to overdose or suicide.

Close-up of an officer's uniform featuring a DEA badge, with money and bags of substances in view, highlighting law enforcement's role in drug regulation.  To urge the FDA to update opioid product labeling and public communication to promote science-based care, offer more accurate information on risks, and vastly improve communication on the risks of opioid reduction, thereby mitigating the mistreatment of patients prescribed opioids for long-term pain.
Yet tapering patients too quickly can lead to overdose or suicide.

Dr. Stefan Kertesz specifically advocates for better protection of long-term pain patients who face medical abandonment when attempting to transition to new doctors. He and other medical scientists, researchers, and paincare advocates call for science-based guidance to ensure that clinicians prioritize patient stability over rigid, high-risk prescribing mandates.

Belinda Parker Brown speaking at a microphone, associated with Louisiana United International. To urge the FDA to update opioid product labeling and public communication to promote science-based care, offer more accurate information on risks, and vastly improve communication on the risks of opioid reduction, thereby mitigating the mistreatment of patients prescribed opioids for long-term pain.
ADVOCATE BELINDA PARKER OF LIU SPEAKS OUT AGAINST HEALTHCARE INJUSTICE

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Infographic titled 'Rethinking Opioid Labels: A Call for Science-Based Patient Safety' illustrating the problems of current opioid labeling and proposed FDA actions for safer care. It highlights the overestimation of opioid use disorder (OUD) risk and advocates for updated labels to reflect accurate information. To urge the FDA to update opioid product labeling and public communication to promote science-based care, offer more accurate information on risks, and vastly improve communication on the risks of opioid reduction, thereby mitigating the mistreatment of patients prescribed opioids for long-term pain.

Briefing Document: Review of Stefan G. Kertesz’s Submission to FDA Docket FDA-2024-N-5331-0003

Infographic illustrating the FDA's 5-year cumulative incidence analysis for opioid overdose estimates, emphasizing the importance of precise labeling and the inclusion of non-fatal events.
Opioid Risk Is Ten Times Lower

Date: May 4, 2025

Source: Excerpts from “Kertesz Docket FDA 2025

Author: Stefan G. Kertesz, MD, MSc, Professor of Medicine, University of Alabama at Birmingham Heersink School of Medicine, Principle Investigator: CSI:OPIOIDs

Subject: Submission for Docket FDA-2024-N-5331-0003 “Joint Meeting of the Drug Safety and Risk Management Advisory Committee and the Anesthetic and Analgesic Drug Products Advisory Committee; Amendment of Notice—Extended-Release/Long-Acting Opioid Analgesic Postmarketing Requirement”

A distressed WOMAN man holding his face with both hands, showing expressions of pain and despair, with rope visible in the background, To urge the FDA to update opioid product labeling and public communication to promote science-based care, offer more accurate information on risks, and vastly improve communication on the risks of opioid reduction, thereby mitigating the mistreatment of patients prescribed opioids for long-term pain.suggesting a struggle or emotional anguish.

Purpose: To urge the FDA to update opioid product labeling and public communication to promote science-based care, offer more accurate information on risks, and vastly improve communication on the risks of opioid reduction, thereby mitigating the mistreatment of patients prescribed opioids for long-term pain.

Key Themes and Important Ideas/Facts:

Infographic illustrating the overestimation of opioid risk based on outdated DSM-IV data, highlighting a 26% estimated risk and the flaws of the methodology.

1. Inaccurate and Outdated Information on Opioid Use Disorder Risk:

  • Problem: Dr. Kertesz argues that current communication and understanding of the risk of new onset opioid use disorder (OUD) in patients receiving long-term opioid therapy is based on outdated and poor-quality research, leading to significant overestimation.
  • Specific Detail: He highlights a cross-sectional study from nearly 20 years ago that reported up to 26% of patients on chronic opioids had “current” OUD based on “blind application” of DSM-IV criteria. This figure was routinely presented as the likelihood of new-onset OUD, which Dr. Kertesz states it “overestimated the risk by a factor of 10.”
  • Improved Data (PMR 3033-1): The FDA’s PMR Study 3033-1 provides more accurate, pain-adjusted estimates. This study utilizes prospective follow-up and a more sensitive and specific instrument to capture OUD.
  • Recommendation: The FDA should update product labeling to show the absolute risk of moderate-to-severe OUD using the pain-adjusted estimates from PMR 3033-1. These are 1.4% and 1.6% for extended-release and overall long-term opioid therapy, respectively.
  • Important Caveat: The labeling should also state that individuals with prior non-opioid use disorders are at higher risk.
  • Quote: “Estimates that are ‘pain-adjusted’ in PMR 3033-1 are far better. The risks of misuse, abuse and OUD are still important. Going forward, I urge the FDA to cite the incidence of moderate-to-serve OUD, using the ‘pain-adjusted’ esitmates. These are 1.4% and 1.6% for extended release and overall long-term opioid therapy, respectively, as shown on Table 8 on page 43.”
A close-up portrait of a man with an intense expression, featuring furrowed brows and a serious look, set against a dark background.

2. Underestimated and Misrepresented Risks of Opioid Overdose:

  • Problem: While acknowledging that overdose events are real and not negligible, Dr. Kertesz implies that current communication on overdose risk may not fully capture the cumulative incidence.
  • Improved Data: The FDA’s analysis of 5-year cumulative incidence based on the Kaplan Meier curve, ranging from 1.49% to 4.05%, should be shared.
  • Clarification Needed: The FDA should underscore that its overdose estimates include nonfatal as well as fatal overdoses.
  • Quote: “In the case of overdose risk (Table 43, page 209), the FDA should share information derived from its analysis of 5 year cumulative incidence based on the Kaplan Meier curve, ranging from 1.49% to 4.05%. This is not neglible. But the information provided by FDA should underscore that its estimates include nonfatal as well as fatal overdoses.”
Text discussing the correlation between involuntary opioid reductions and catastrophic outcomes, including suicide risk.

3. Substantial and Under-Communicated Risks of Opioid Reduction:

  • Problem: Dr. Kertesz strongly emphasizes that the FDA’s current guidance on opioid reduction, particularly the 2019 warning about “sudden discontinuation” or “rapidly decreased” doses, is insufficient and does not reflect emerging science. The emphasis on acute withdrawal is too narrow.
  • Key Finding: Emerging evidence from multiple research teams indicates that modest dose variations (as little as 15%) and discontinuations are statistically correlated with additional medical harm, overdose, or suicide events.
  • Duration of Risk: The period of excess risk tends to extend for at least several months or longer, significantly beyond the period of acute opioid withdrawal. Studies have shown increased risk for more than a year after dose reductions.
  • Lack of Safety Signals: There are “very few signals in retrospective studies that prescription opioid reduction confers safety.”
  • Recommendation: The FDA must improve its guidance to reflect that dose reduction alone, regardless of pace, may incur serious health risks to patients. Clinicians should consider that involuntary reductions and stoppages are “more likely to cause harm than benefit.”
  • Quote: “Since 2019, evidence developed by many diferent research teams indicates that that modest dose variations (as little as 15%) and discontinuations are both statistically correlated with additional medical harm, overdose or suicide events… Further, within this body of evidence, the period of excess risk tends to extend for at least several months or longer, which is far beyond the period of acute opioid withdrawal.”
A flowchart titled 'The Trajectory of Patient Abandonment' illustrating the stages from stability, displacement, and the void to refusal/taper, leading to deterioration and ultimately tragedy, represented by suicide or overdose.

4. High Vulnerability and Mistreatment of Patients Transitioning Prescribers:

  • Problem: Patients on long-term prescribed opioids who need to transition between prescribers due to geographic moves, physician retirement, or practice changes face a period of “high vulnerability” for their pain control and safety. Many medical practices (as many as 40%) refuse to accept such patients.
  • Reasons for Refusal: Prescriber discomfort, mistaken belief that continuing opioids is inherently harmful, professional fears, and pressure from regulators, pharmacies, and distributors that penalize prescribers for taking on these patients.
  • Tragic Outcomes: Dr. Kertesz’s ongoing federally funded study (CSI:OPIOIDs) on suicides after prescription opioid reduction reveals a pattern where patients with complex disabilities and long-term pain are forced to transition, new prescribers refuse or involuntarily taper opioids, the patients deteriorate, and subsequently die by suicide.
  • Quote: “In recent research, as many as 40% of medical practices refuse to receive a new patient if that patient is on long-term prescribed opioids.”
  • Quote: “In the stories we have collected through in-depth interviews, the ‘new prescribers’ often accept the patient but then either refuse all opioids or initiate an involuntary taper. The patients deteriorate and at delay, often of months to a year, they die by suicide.”
  • Recommendation: The FDA must offer specific guidance for prescribers seeing patients who have lost their previous prescriber. The FDA should urge providers not to refuse continuation “across the board” and advocate for the correction of measures that punish prescribers for taking on these patients.
A graphic emphasizing the importance of scientific accuracy in opioid prescribing, highlighting better data, harms of tapering, and the crisis of medical abandonment for long-term pain patients.

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